Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
